Ramblings' Journal

Why Black Voters Will Cost Kerry The Presidency

The Horserace Blog has a detailed dissertation as to why black voters will cost Ketchup Boy the White House.

Regular readers are well aware that I think this election is over, that George W. Bush will be reelected. There are two reasons why I think this is the case:

1. Kerry is going to under-perform badly among black voters relative to Gore’s performance in 2000.
2. Bush is going to over-perform among Catholics relative to his performance in 2000.

Two weeks ago, the latest Pew Poll came out showing Kerry enjoying 70% support among blacks. Just today The Center for Policy and Economic Studies announced that in their poll, Kerry enjoyed 69% support among blacks compared to 18% for Bush. They conducted a similar poll at the same point in the 2000 race. It showed Gore 74%, Bush 9%. According to this poll, then, Kerry is underperforming among blacks by roughly 14% of the vote, a statistically significant difference. What would that mean if these numbers hold for the next month?

Further analysis on the black electorate and the remainder of the election process can be found at The Horserace Blog, which has now found a place in the blogroll.

Posted by mhking at October 20, 2004 04:23 PM